Azraq MC Radar · Energy Pricing Module

Power tariff intelligence, quantified

A reusable module that turns a data centre asset's electricity tariff into a calibrated, auditable distribution — not a flat-rate guess. Proven on the Lynnway Park pilot (National Grid MA, G-3 tariff); now being generalised into a platform module across utilities, countries, and regulatory regimes.

Model: Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (mean-reverting) Pilot: Lynnway Park, MA Phase 1: US, single market
Live tool

Fetch a rate

Pick a country and US state, then pull the current delivered power rate and historical monthly series live from the EIA — on demand, nothing stored.

Open live rate fetch →
Reference model

OU simulation (Lynnway pilot)

The calibrated Monte Carlo fan chart, seasonal index, and stress comparison from the original Lynnway Park proof of concept — the methodology this module generalises.

Open OU simulation →

What the module produces

For any registered data centre asset, five outputs, each feeding a different part of the Azraq platform.

EPX-1

Delivered rate estimate

Current all-in power rate with confidence interval — feeds KRI scoring and the OpEx model.

Live now
EPX-2

Seasonal index

12-month multiplicative index for the asset's utility zone — feeds monthly DCF shaping.

In progress
EPX-3

OU simulation

20,000-path Monte Carlo fan chart calibrated to available history — the DCF central case.

In progress
EPX-4

Stress scenario

P75 / P95 from GBM or OU stress calibration — feeds sensitivity tables.

In progress
EPX-5

Tariff risk score

Normalised 0–100 score reflecting volatility, regulatory exposure, and seasonal swing — feeds SR-KRI UTL-04.

Not started